Wednesday, February 18, 2009

durrrr high stakes challenge

If you like poker you should be interested in the following. One of the biggest winners in cash game poker over the last 18 months (durrrr aka Tom Dwan a 25 yr old) has issued a challenge to anyone willing to throwdown. The challenge is as follows:

“I’m making this heads-up challenge to the world. Anyone can accept. Four tables, minimum of $200/$400, and I’ll put up $1.5 million to their $500,000. We play 50,000 hands minimum and if they end up a dollar after rake they keep the side money or whatever. So basically, if you and I played and you won a dollar, you would get my $1.5 million and if I won a dollar I would win your $500,000.

here are the conditions he set forth:

1) 200-400min (nl/plo obv)
2) can change tables anytime eff stacks are >250bb
3) have to reload when stacks are <75bb
4) $$ won in the challenge is kept obv (if i win 750k in poker, i get that PLUS your 500k- if i lose 750k in poker you get 2.25m total).
5) same stakes the whole time
6) not open to phil galfond (because Durrrr thinks he's too good)

(there may be other conditions but I couldn't find them after a short search).

Apparently Patrick Antonius (another very good and very successful high stakes poker player) recently accepted the challenge. Full Tilt created special tables for the challenge match in their Omaha High lobby, and the players began to battle it out this morning. Right now they are playing on 4 tables of 200/400 PLO.

Prevailing opinion among poker pros is that Durrrr has an edge on Antonius, and maybe on anyone (with the obvious exception of Galfond). Galfond even tried to get it going but Dwan declined his action, and the current match with Antonius this morning is the beginning of the challenge.

However even over 50k hands there can be significant variance, and Antonius is a very very good player (and fearless) in his own right. So while most are giving durrr an edge, and would probably call him something of a 1.2-1 favorite, it is probably a +EV move for Antonius to take up the challenge. If he can get out to a decent lead, and then play smart enough (ie conservatively enough) down the stretch, there is a huge profit to be made.

The metagame implications of the side wager should be considerable as the challenge begins to wind down (which will probably be days from now) and I'm excited to see how it all plays out. If you like poker, high stakes gambling, or PLO you should definitely log in to full tilt and check out the action.

here are some threads on 2p2 detailing the challenge and match:

durrrr challenge thread

thread of the current action

discussing who might have an edge against dwan in the challenge

oh and the poker gods continue to bless me (all praise be to the poker gods) and I had another wonderful winning session last night.


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