Monday, January 13, 2014

Hand of the day: Knowing when not to bluff the river

poker - £0.20 PL Hi - Omaha Hi - 6 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 112.1 BB (VPIP: 24.19, PFR: 4.10, 3Bet Preflop: 1.44, Hands: 1,985)
SB: 113.35 BB (VPIP: 23.91, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 46)
BB: 134.4 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 16.48, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 93)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.63, PFR: 15.18, 3Bet Preflop: 4.95, Hands: 3,014)
MP: 211.2 BB (VPIP: 26.63, PFR: 21.60, 3Bet Preflop: 13.60, Hands: 1,435)
Hero (CO): 124.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6 T 9 J

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, SB raises to 10 BB, BB calls 9 BB, Hero calls 7 BB

Flop: (30 BB, 3 players) K 6 5
SB bets 18 BB, fold, Hero calls 18 BB

Turn: (66 BB, 2 players) Q
SB bets 50 BB, Hero calls 50 BB

River: (166 BB, 2 players) 8
SB checks, Hero checks

SB shows 4 K K 7 (Straight, Eight High) (Pre 65%, Flop 93%, Turn 78%)
Hero mucks 6 T 9 J (One Pair, Sixes) (Pre 35%, Flop 7%, Turn 23%)
SB wins 157.7 BB

first off let me say that villain in this hand basically plays very well on every street, kudos to him.  I make a few debatable and somewhat loose plays on the flop and the turn.  I'm not sure if they're correct, and I don't think they are very instructive in improving your play.  But I think the river can be a valuable learning spot.

Preflop, this is a fairly standard open in the CO especially with a BTN that is never squeezing.  The SB 3bets and I have enough connectivity as well as a suit so I should defend.  Also is relatively tight 3betting numbers somewhat increase the value of my hand as I think he'll often not have a lot of board coverage on middle to low flops.

On the flop I basically missed, but I decide to float.  There are lots of turn cards that really hit my range that don't hit his that I'll often be able to bluff.  Most of those cards also give me some backdoor straight draws improving the equity of my bluff.  Villains range is going to be heavily weighted towards large pairs, and I think he'll check the turn on a lot of cards allowing me to bluff some times and take a free turn some times.  I would like my float more if I had a bd flush draw, or a GS.  This is definitely a loose peel, and I don't have a problem with someone suggesting I should simply fold the flop.

The turn card is very good for my hand in that it gives me a 13 card wrap.  Granted the flush draw definitely reduces the value of that draw, but if I hit my straight I'm going to be good quite often.  Despite this villain nearly pots it in what is obviously a committing bet as he's now put in 78 of his 114bb stack.  So I have no fold equity and no reason to shove.  I'm getting about 2.32-1 on my call, and I estimate my turn equity against villains range at somewhere between 20 and 30%.  So I'm not quite getting the odds I want to call (3-1 would be better), but the river is going to be relatively easy to play and we still have 36 bb behind.  So my implied odds if I play the river well are more like 3-1.  That makes it close, but I decide to make a loose peel given the relative high visibility of my hand (ie I'll be able to hand and board read on the river fairly easily).  I make another somewhat loose and debatable peel here. 

On the river I whiff, and villain somewhat quickly checks.  Obviously when you find yourself at the bottom of your range on the river the first thing you should consider is bluffing.  But I'm only going to be betting 36bb into a 150bb pot, so I really shouldn't have much fold equity.  More importantly this card is a relative blank.  While I'll sometimes have hit a gutter that I had a bdfd or something to go with, this just isn't crushing my range.  I expect when villain checks the river on this card he's planning on calling any QQxx or better.  So I check back, give up, and lose.  It sucks, but it saved me 36bb.

The old saying is "don't go throwing good money after bad."  and a bluff on this river would have been exactly that.

No comments: