Wednesday, April 1, 2009

March Wrap-up

graph at bottom. Good month overall. Started off really well and continued my hot streak from jan and feb, but then ran break even for the last week and a half of the month. For the most part I'm pretty sure I was running below expectation because I had some brutal suckouts and stuff, but I still felt pretty good about my play.

People on 2p2 are finally discussing me a little in the midstakes full ring forum. I figured it would only be a matter of time before I got the occasional mention or wtf. The reason is that I'm winning with almost as good of a winrate as some of the best 2/4 players (maybe as good as the best) but I'm playing 25/17 preflop. Which if you follow preflop stats is pretty loose for full ring. Most of the regs play around a 18-15/15-12 type style, and quite a few of the winners play a really tight 12/9 type style. I also 3-bet almost twice as much as most of them, and attempt to steal blinds about 33% more. I think this is about as loose as I can profitably play, and I think any attempts to play more loosely will probably result in spew or me being in horrible spots.

For now though I feel really good about my game because my range is so much wider than the other regs that they are consistently playing guessing games against me while I usually have a very solid understanding of most of their ranges. Plus I tend to get a bit more action on my big pairs than a lot of other players.

In other news I was obviously dissappointed by the end of the season for the Blue Devils. I went to the game in the garden and was all excited to watch my boys play after seeing the Pit and Xavier game. I wasn't impressed by either of those teams play in the first game (and we beat Xavier by 20 earlier in the season) and felt that if we could get by Villanova we were very likely going to make the final four. Unfortunately it was not to be. First I'll give credit to Nova. They played oustanding pressure defense and didn't let up the whole game. They showed great leadership and hustle and I really think their coach knows how to motivate his players and get the right system for the guys he has. The definitely deserved to win and move on to the Final Four after beating Pitt. But I have to also comment on the reality of the game. If Duke shoots our normal % from threes, twos, and FTs then we likely win the game in regulation. Despite Nova getting 10 pts in garbage time we still would likely have scored nearly 80 points if we are hitting shots. And I was at the game and can tell you that many of these were wide open threes, relatively easy close range twos, and obviously free throws. I mean we shot so poorly that a stellar defensive effort (and I thought our first half defense was outstanding) went totally to waste. The only reason that Nova ends up in the 70s and not in the low 60s in point total is that with less than 7 minutes remaining and being down by 12 Coach K realized that we had to go all-or-nothing press on them and hope to make up the difference. The problem with all-or-nothing is that when it doesn't work it turns a bad loss into a blow out. Instead of coming up with steals, turnovers, and converting them into quick baskets we just gave nova easy two pointers and endedup committing a lot of dumb fouls and sending them to the line. It was just a ridiculously frustrating game because going into the game I thought that the teams were very even and the game was likely a 50/50 coin flip. After watching us get blow out by 22.... my opinion didn't change a bit! If we were to play them again I'd still think we were a coinflip. I know this sounds ridiculous and extremely biased, but the fact of the matter is that with the shooters we have it is unlikely that we would shoot like that in another game. And while I give some credit to nova's D, most of the blame has to go to us and our simple inability to make open shots.

I also thought the guys looked very tired in the second half, and I think there was some since of a letdown when after all of the hype things weren't going their way. Plus of course all of the Pitt and Xavier fans became anti-Duke and were booing them from warmups, and the nova fans were typical classy Philly folk (lol) so again it was like Duke was playing a road game. Despite all of this I was extremely proud of the team and the season. A record of 30-7 with the hardest schedule in the nation is outstanding. We won the ACC championship, made the sweet sixteen, and I think set ourselves up nicely for a great year next year. I really hope that Henderson decides to come back. He has a lot of work to do on his game both improving his jump shooting and developing his left hand (right now teams are forcing him to go left and he is really struggling) and if he does we have to be on the short-list of favorites to win it all. If he leaves I would hope for a season similar to this year, and our success postseason would depend on how dominant of a player singler could become, and how much the fresmen are able to contribute.

In other news I'm going to NOLA this weekend for a friends bachelor party. Never been there before so that should be fun. After this weekend of traveling though I think I'm going to lay low on the flying around for awhile. I have two trips scheduled in May, and I'd really like to get a hundred hours of poker in April.

Also I really don't like April Fools. I just don't find it funny to trick people especially when people fake tragedies and stuff. I guess there are some good april fools pranks, but I'm usually to lazy to think of or implement any of them.

so I'm going to wrap this one up. I'm going to start looking for interesting hands to post up in the blog, but a lot times in the middle of a 4k hand session I see a really cool hand where I make a sick bluff or call down but then I totally forget it by the end of the session. Plus people don't seem to comment on the hands that much so I'm not sure it is even worth me putting them out there.

hope everyone had a great march and let's hope april is even better.




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