running sooooo bad

So that graph if you can tell indicates that I'm running just under $14,000 under expectation in all in hands this month. So not only am I finding myself in lots of bad cooler spots (KK against AA, flushes into full houses, sets into flushes, etc etc etc) but I'm not even winning when I get my money in good. This includes losing countless flips (I literally mean countless because I tried to keep track one session and stopped at 22) against shortstackers.

Despite all of this I'm only down about $4k on the month. So when the variance catches up to me I have the opportunity to be having a really terrific month.

I'm really proud of the fact that I've grinded my ass off this month. So far I've played 60 hours and just under 45k hands. If things were to go as expected for the rest of the month I could easily make $15k this month. If the variance were to catch up as it mathematically should in the long run then I could easily make +$20k this month. Right now I'd settle for a few sessions in which I didn't suffer multiple 4 or less outers every hour.

that is all for now.

this is kind of important to some of us

copied from my PPA email:

Just one week after a historic election the Poker Players Alliance is pitted in a fight to keep anti-Internet poker regulations from being enacted and we NEED YOUR HELP!

The current Administration is hastily finalizing a number of “midnight rules” before they leave office and the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA) is on the list. See the 11/06 story in Dow Jones. Just like UIGEA was snuck into legislation in the dark of night in 2006, our opponents are again trying an 11th hour sneak job. We need you to help us expose and stop this reckless rulemaking.

Please call the U.S. Federal Reserve and tell them not to approve the UIGEA regulations -- Consumer Complaints, 888-851-1920 or Public Affairs, 202-452-2955.

Tell them:
• The federal agencies responsible for our nation’s economy should not be focused on Internet poker regulations.
• Finalization of the UIGEA rules will add additional burdens on our already crippled financial systems.
• Internet poker is a game of skill and form of recreation for millions of Americans; it should be exempted from the UIGEA.
• Please do not finalize the UIGEA regulations until their impact on our banking systems and average Americans has been fully studied.

Tell us how the call went by clicking here.

Your call will make a huge difference and will add the public’s voice to these last minute policy decisions our government is poised to make. We can’t stand idly by while they make decisions that will impact our right to play America’s card game. PLEASE CALL TODAY!

a littany of complaints and some observations.

Barack Obama is not the messiah. I think he is going to be a good president, I think he is smart, serious, has integrity, and means well. I doubt I will agree with all of his policies, but I think overall I'll be glad he is our president. However while I can certainly recognize the important emotional impact of his election to blacks and other minorities that have faced prejudice and bigotry, I'm afraid that too many people think his election is going to suddenly change the face of the United States and fix all of the problems that they, you, or I might be facing (not many in the case of me).

But that isn't going to happen for a number of reasons, most of which are out of his control. Our government is a fat bloated bureaucracy. Things don't happen quickly because radical change is scary, and democracies tend to err towards the status quo. So nothing drastic is going to happen anytime soon. Along with that we need ot realize that Barack is a very centrist candidate (and I don't really have a problem with that) but nothing in his campaign nor his political past leads me to believe that he is suddenly going to try and flip the federal government on its head. The Democrats don't have a large enough majority in the Senate to prevent fillibuster, and frankly I think that is a good thing. I typically disagree with and disdain both political parties (thanks college poli sci major for the disillusionment) so as long as they are my two options I prefer they do their best to cancel each other out.

And while he may be a great guy, Obama is going to make mistakes, every president has. In fact very few Presidents (if you study their history) deserve the credit or blame that we give them. Typically the really great Presidents did some good things but tended to have some of their policy run really good so to speak, and also just happen to be elected during an upswing during one of our economic cycles. The same is true of the Presidents that we typically bash. For the most part they were crappy for some reason, and probably made some stupid policy, but we also tend to blame them for everything that happened during their presidency when in reality they had little to no chance to make a reasonable impact on most of those issues.

So don't expect that Obama is going to fix the economy, health care, or the fact that you can't win a coin flip on the bubble any time soon. He may make some positive contributions to some things, but lets not suddenly bash him if things haven't changed drastically in four years. He has been put up on such a pedestal of hope right now that if things go crappy it could be a long fall. Lest we forget almost half of the country didn't vote for him and their ready to jump all over him if things go bad or he makes a mistake.

Speaking of coin flips, I can't win one. And my sets tend to run into higher sets. And I tend to miss my draws. And my overpairs tend to run into spots where I can only call huge bets on the river if I like burning money. So yeah I'm running bad. But I also feel as though I'm playing pretty well, and controlling my tilt well. So while I'm down about 8k so far this month, I think that actually isn't that bad. If I was tilting and or spewing I think I could easily be down 15k plus this month. But I'm not and I'm proud of that. Money saved is the same as money earned.

Also I can't find my jacket. I last remember wearing it tuesday afternoon, but I looked for it this morning and I can't find it. I'm pissed off. Really there are few things in life that gnaw on my brain like not being able to find something. I rarely can get anything accomplished until I find said lost item, and I tend to obsessively think about it while cursing myself out loud. It's probably somewhat amusing to someone else, but it's really annoying to me. And I'm pretty sure my keys are in the jacket, so that's good.

I just finished reading my third Chuck Klosterman book in about 2 weeks. I really enjoyed it. He is a writer for several popular mags including GQ and Spin, but I had never really known about him or read his stuff until a friend loaned me 4 of his books. I really enjoy his writing, and I find it scarily reminiscent to how I sit and think about things during the day. I suggest any of his books, although maybe the most accessible is Chuck Klosterman IV which is a collection of essays, articles, and some stories. It's great bathroom reading since its broken up into short reads, and the guy just says really insightful things. Warning to any ladies who may read this blog (unlikely since my readership is probably not large enough that a woman is statistically likely, considering the subject matter. if you happen to be a woman and reading my blog please prove me wrong in the comment section) he is a "guy" through and through. But at the same time I think most ladies/women would really enjoy the books, just understand that his subjects may be more accessible/interesting if you share his gender, although he definitely knows this and makes some self-depricating comments to the fact.

Final observation before I let you patient blog readers off to enjoy your day. I notice when I'm reading that I use various voices in my mind for the narration. And the tone and inflection of the voice depends on my estimation of the narrator. For Klosterman I tended to use a voice similar to my own, but maybe slightly more nasally and definitely speaking more sarcastically. I also had him speaking almost as a character in a sitcom or movie since he writes (speaks in my head) such witty insightful things that I can't imagine this timing would be natural in normal conversation. At least I think I couldn't achieve such timing. When I'm reading fantasy fiction I think the voice in my head tends to be more slow, deep, and typically like an older person is relaying something to me in a very serious tone. If I'm reading a woman's writing I probably would assign them a voice of various women that I know, although I'm not really sure since I can't really remember the last time I read literature written by a woman (recommendations anyone?).

anyway that is all. Hopefully next time I post I'll be back to even for the month and feel like blogging about poker. Maybe not though. I'm kind of enjoying writing about other topics. I find it somewhat cathartic (I know uber cliched) and I think it might be more interesting.

later

jim

why I'm not playing much lately, and why that is probably good

Sometimes the most +EV decision you can make in poker is to stay away from the tables. Whether they be virtual or real life, it's rare that you can bring a moderate or weak focus to the game and expect good results. Especially in the games and stakes I currently find myself.

Lately for various reasons (most of which personal and I'm not sure I feel like delving in to) I've found myself emotionally uninterested in grinding. I constantly load up FTP, start mining hands and look to see if the games are good. I would say on thursday, friday, saturday, and sunday the games were all fantastic. Despite that I only played on thursday and couldn't find the effort to sit once over the weekend. Some might say this is fairly pathetic given I spend most of my time doing activities purely for my own enjoyment. Those folks would think that my inability to sit and grind for even a couple of hours shows a lack of dedication or just plain laziness on my part. While I could understand where this sentiment would be coming from, these I think would be the people that would struggle (and possibly fail) with the psychological aspect of playing poker for living, something I believe is the most difficult aspect.

One thing I've discovered in the last couple of years is that if you don't feel like playing, you shouldn't play. Just because you had planned on playing does not mean that you have to keep some kind of interpersonal gambling appointment. Poker is an entirely voluntary game and noone can tell you when you should be playing. I have no obligation to anyone beyond paying my bills and my taxes. If I am adequately taking care of those two responsibilities then I don't have a compelling reason to play if I don't want to.

While this all seems very rudimentary, I think there is a deeper message I'm trying and failing miserably at illuminating. The idea is not only that playing when you don't want to play will be -EV because it is unlikely that you will bring or sustain your A game to the tables, but it is also -EV for your personal quality of life. Earning money only has so much value as it allows you to do what you want with your life. In my case I enjoy playing poker, but I also enjoy a myriad of other pursuits. If monetarily I am not wanting, then the opportunity cost of not playing poker is no greater in my mind than the opportunity lost to enrich myself or in general enjoy my day. It's this idea that we (speaking mostly of middle to upper class Americans here) must be constantly accumulating wealth that baffles me.

Take the last 12 months of my life. I could have easily doubled my earn in that time if I had put in 2.5x as much time playing as I did (I say 2.5x playing because as you play more you won't be able to game select as much and you won't be able to be on your A game for as long). However the time cost, physical toll, and mental wear probably would have caused a significant dip in my quality of life (which was quite high imo). Would an additional $XXXXXX provide me with something that would have raised my quality of life from what the additional playing time took away? I don't know. But my quick random blog thought assessment says no. I can't think of any trips, meals, outings, or toys that I desperately wanted to go on, own or use that would have increased on any meaningful level my quality of life. For the most part in terms of freedom of personal time I have been in a nearly ideal situation over the last 12 months. Typically anything that I wanted to do I could do it. Both because I had the time, and I had the freedom. Once you've achieved that, what more can a job that you actually enjoy really offer?

I could ramble on and on about this and get into the levels that I find much more interesting. But chances are that my off the cuff 4AM blogging isn't really such tremendous prose. Most of what I find interesting about all of this relates much more to psychology, sociology, philosophy, and political science than to poker. And since I neither have the resources nor the knowledge of the people that have made these arguments before (and most certainly better and more clear than I am) anything further would simply be rambling conjecture on subjects that people who check out my blog probably have no interest or understand better than me.

Maybe I'll drag a friend to a bar sometime this week and wax philosophical over some octoberfest or an IPA, before it goes from jacket-weather to coat-weather.

FWIW I've been really enjoying a few bands lately that people may or may not know about. For some reason I pull these two out every fall and find there music appropriately moody (and dare I say emo) for the season. I tend to find myself matching genres with seasons, and fall is definitely my punk, alt, emo, rock time of the year. The bands I'm spending most of my time listening to are ...And You Will Know Us by the Trail of Dead and Brand New. AYWKUSTD is much more out there, but very very interesting and Brand New (imo) is simply the only bad to make emo rock that I really respect. Then again I think its questionable if there stuff is really emo, or if its just serious alt-rock. Without a doubt I think they put out serious heavy albums of the type that I haven't really found since At The Drive-In split into Sparta and Mars Volta.

thats all for now. Still looking for a Halloween costume. Some of the ideas have been really solid, but nothing has really stuck. I think in general I'm looking for something a little more humorous, but at least one of the suggestions did make me lol. I'm still looking for an idea of what to do on Halloween as surprisingly none of my friends seem interested this year, so it could be that I won't even be doing anything interesting. meh.